Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Facebook, Google, and the Near-Term Future of the USA

On the day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 12,000 for the first time since June 2008, it is impossible not to correlate the eloquence and optimism of President Obama's "State of the Union" speech on Tuesday night with the restoration of a sense of perspective and hope in the USA about the future.

Obama grasped the nettle full-on. "We are poised for progress," he declared, adding:
"Two years after the worst recession most of us have ever known, the stock market has come roaring back. Corporate profits are up. The economy is growing."

As one blogger expressed it, though - and he is a former Goldman Sachs trader called Tyler Durden, so he ought to know wheref he speaks:
"There was a massive pink elephant in the room called reality though."

Durden's gripe is with the unreality of Obama's praising Google and Facebook so highly in an America where 26 million people are unemployed or underemployed. It is with his failing to address that while the salaries of U.S. CEOs are up, the average median employee salary on a comparative basis is stuck somewhere in the 1970s.

"This is our generation’s Sputnik moment," Obama said, in the most-quoted sentence of the entire address. America, in other words, needs to enter an Education Race akin to the Space Race that it entered in 1958.

What role will New Media activities play in all of this? Facebook may be many things, but a tool for better education is not one of them. Google stands a better chance in that regard. But Twitter? Can tweeting really help restore America's lost position in the world?

Those who live by new media die by new media. The 44th president of the United States of America needs to be careful when hitching the wagon of his presidency to stock prices and IPOs...can we all really have already forgotten the Dot-com bubble, which peaked in March 2000, when the NASDAQ lost nearly nine percent of its value in just six days and many dot-coms began to run out of capital and were acquired or liquidated?

What do you think? Is the 'Sputnik moment' a metaphor that can help re-boot America? What web-based organizations instil more hope in you, commercial giants like Facebook and Google...or non-commercial minnows like Wikipedia? How can we best preserve a World Wide Web in which there is room for both?

Friday, November 5, 2010

Is Ballmer Bailing?

"Even though this is a personal financial matter, I want to be clear about this to avoid any confusion," wrote Microsoft CEO Ballmer on the Microsoft website, to quell fears that his sale of $1.3BN worth of shares in the company was maybe a sign of an imminent departure from the hot seat that he has occupied for the past ten years.

He added:

"I am excited about our new products and the potential for our technology to change people's lives, and I remain fully committed to Microsoft and its success."

For those with a good memory, they may recognize that this same exact wording is what Ballmer's advisers have also used in the past. Such as in May 2003, when he also sold some of his holdings of Microsoft stock "to gain some diversification of his financial assets."

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Why Blogging is Not a True Co-Technology

Speaking today in Tokyo at The New Context Conference 2010, the founder of Twitter, Biz Stone (pictured), put onto the record two sentences that will stand the test of time in the era of social computing:
"Twitter isn't a triumph of technology it's a triumph of humanity. A more connected world leads to a more empathic world."

Interestingly, Stone makes this observation in the self-same week that saw the sale of TechCrunch, Inc. to New York-based AOL - triggering a spate of commentaries along the lines of This Is the Death of Independent Blogging.

Is this an inflexion point? Hell, yes. And a big one. This week is also the week in which, as Guy Kawasaki reminds us, that Twitter's traffic overtook that of MySpace.

So what is going on? Why is independent blogging being characterized as dying at the very moment that tweeting is becoming as natural a part of the interconnected world as breathing?

The key, I believe, is in that word "ïnterconnected" - because blogging, for all its merits, has always suffered from that one huge shortcoming, namely that (notwithstanding the excellent innovations like RSS, Trackbacks, the Technorati real-time APIs and even Google's Blog Search) it truly isn't very interactive. I blog, you blog, he/she/it blogs. We hyperlink to each other, but that is about it. Blog feedback threads are frustratingly isolated silos. In fact, to be blunt, blogging is about as innovative a use of the Web as propping open your office door with a Xitami web server.

Tweeting, in contrast, is quite another pair of shoes. Twitter is a true co-technology. And only co-technologies will truly flourish, in the second decade of the 21st century.

Biz Stone is right: "A more connected world leads to a more empathic world." That is after all one of the pillars of co-intelligence, of the belief that none of us is as smart as all of us.

It is going to be the most interesting decade ever. You heard it here first!

Disclosure: I have never been a huge proponent of blogging, as made transparent by this 2007 article.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Will Oracle Bid for HP?

"Larry Ellison is borderline bat-shit crazy on a good day," the analyst Rob Enderle is quoted as saying in a piece last week by Sam Gustin - a senior writer at DailyFinance, an AOL Finance & Money site.

Enderle was prompted to utter this remark by speculation that perhaps the Oracle CEO is about to embark upon the acquisition of his life: of HP.

"I think his bet is that he can damage HP enough that it drops in value and he can wander in with an offer," Enderle is quoted as having added.

So is it possible that Ellison the Conqueror, CEO of Oracle Corporation since he founded the company in 1977, truly has the $90BN HP in the crosshairs of his acquisition rifle-sight? Can a $120BN company somehow buy and absorb a $90BN one?

Well certainly he now has on board the exact right man to tackle the integration of such a purchase: none other than HP's own former CEO, Mark Hurd. And, as Gustin expresses it:
'Ellison is a man with ambitions as big as his MIG-29 fighter jet is fast, and he's got a history of stating that the info-tech industry will further consolidate in the same way the auto industry consolidated into the Big Three in the U.S.'

"When your end goal is global dominance, difficulty is a mere distraction," Gustin notes.

Enderle was quick to highlight a revenge-is-sweet angle to, to the possible scenario.

"[W]hat could be sweeter revenge for Hurd than winding up running HP again - as a part of Oracle?"

Credit for first raising the possibility of an Oracle-HP bid goes not to Enderle or Gustin, btw, but to former FT journalist Tom Forenski, who was already writing speculatively about such a scenario back in mid-August - that's to say, before Mark Hurd had even been made Co-President of Oracle.

With cloud computing now driving a sea-change in how enterprise IT datacenters are put together, one thing is certain: more consolidation is right around the corner.

Only time will tell if an Oracle bid for HP will be next. This one, as they say, will run and run.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

The Top 50 Bloggers on Cloud Computing

Ever since I first published here my tentative list of Top Players in the Cloud Computing Ecosystem - now expanded to a list of 250 and growing daily thanks to community feedback via my Twitter account (@jg21) and a very kind mention by ReadWriteWeb - there have been suggestions that another prism through which to view cloud computing might be that of people rather than companies.

Now Michael Sheehan has encouraged me to Just Do It, so let me get started...as per the previous Top Cloud Players list, this list will a work-in-progress and is totally porous, so don't hesitate to ping or tweet me if there are folks I have missed. In particular if you are a journalist whose "beat" is Cloud Computing, please let's be hearing from you, and we can maybe widen this list from Cloud Bloggers to Cloud Commentators.

For now though let's get started. In alphabetical order - to avoid invidious arguments about "pecking order" - here goes:

Dustin Amrhein | "A View from the Clouds"

Randy Bias | "Cloudscaling"

Rene Buest | www.CloudUser.org

Larry Carvalho | "Robust Cloud"

Sam Charrington | "Cloud Pulse"

Colin Clark |"Cloud Event Processing"

Peter Coffee | cloudblog.salesforce.com

Reuven Cohen | "Elastic Vapor"

Adrian Cole | jclouds.tumblr.com

Tim Crawford | "Cloud Computing & IT Optimization"

James Downey | "Cloud of Innovation"

William Fellows | blogs.the451group.com

Stephen Foskett | "GestaltIT"

Tim Freeman | www.timfreeman.org

Jay Fry | "Data Center Dialog"

Bernard Golden | "The Open Source"

James Hamilton | "Perspectives"

Christofer Hoff | "Rational Survivability"

Kevin L. Jackson | "Cloud Musings"

Steve Jin | www.DoubleCloud.org

Sam Johnston | www.samj.net

Ben Kepes | "The Diversity Blog"

Markus Klems | "Cloudy Times"

Dave Linthicum | "Cloud Computing"

William Louth | williamlouth.wordpress.com

Lori MacVittie | devcentral.f5.com

Paul Miller | "Cloud of Data"

Stuart Miniman | blogstu.wordpress.com

Greg Ness | www.infra20.com

Ray Nugent | "Cloudshaping: What's shaping the Cloud"

Geva Perry | "Thinking Out Cloud"

Gregor Petri | "The Cloud Academy"

George Reese | enstratus.typepad.com/blog

Guy Rosen | www.vircado.com/blog

Ellen Rubin | "Enterprise Cloud Computing Blog"

Scott C. Sanchez | "Cloudnod"

Michael Sheehan | www.HighTechDad.com

Krishnan Subramanian | "CloudAve"

John Treadway | "CloudBzz"

James Urquhart | "The Wisdom of Clouds"

William Vambenepe | "IT Management in a Changing IT World"

Werner Vogels | "All Things Distributed"

Phil Wainewright | "Software as Services"

Simon Wardley | "Bits or Pieces"

James Watters | wattersjames.posterous.com

Alan Williamson | alan.blog-city.com

Alex Williams | "ReadWrite Cloud"

John M. Willis | www.johnmwillis.com

EDITORIAL NOTE: As I say, all suggestions for additions are welcome. Based on previous experience, this list will no doubt grow, and probably very fast! Thanks in advance for your suggestion to http://twitter.com/jg21

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Is 2010 the End of the Beginning for New Media?

There was a mind-boggling article in the New York Times recently opining that the only way for the Washington Post Company to sell Newsweek will probably be to pay someone to take it:

This surely is an inflexion point in the life of all of us who have lived - and loved - publishing for decades. It's right up there with the day that Encyclopedia Britannica realized that its Beyond Paper future lay not in CD-ROM editions but online. Newsweek, and perhaps any print weekly, is simply no longer financially viable...not as a physical magazine, anyhow.

This is a classic example of The Law of Unintended Consequences. If Tim Berners Lee had thought for a moment, back in 1990, that his invention at CERN of http + HTML + server + browser was going 20 years later to eliminate Newsweek from newsstands worldwide, he might have gone back to studying physics instead of ushering in the World Wide Web.

But what's done is done, and what interests me in this Times piece by David Carr is not so much the End-of-Newsweek story as the meta message of the article which is the contention that we now live in an age where the periodicity of publications has become a potential showstopper:

'But in the current digital news ecosystem, having “week” in your title is anachronistic in the extreme [my emphasis], what an investor would call negative equity.

And in a publishing landscape filled with the lame and infirm, weeklies are the most profoundly challenged. A weekly schedule, with its tight turnarounds and frenzied production, is costly as a matter of course. Monthlies can still do step-backs for readers who don’t expect to see what happened five minutes ago, and daily newspapers have co-opted the newsweekly formula to build in real-time analysis.'

I have to say, I am not at all certain that I buy that argument: "having 'week' in your title is anachronistic in the extreme," I mean. It sounds profound, but I think it's a crock. I created a feature for a weekly back in 1982, so very nearly thirty years ago, that to this day, were I to throw it up online, would probably be read by 100,000 people a week: it was called, simply, "The Week in Words."

Far from being a liability - not as long as a month, seven times longer than a day - the concept of a week remains in my view an almost perfect container: for thoughts as for deeds. Who does not view their life through the prism of the week? Who does not turn over a new page in their mind every Monday morning?

The comments David Carr makes about the math are interesting but they are hardly shocking. With a $40M subscription liability, he writes that any new owner would therefore be obligated to print Newsweek for the next 18 months at least - which makes no allowance at all for the possibility of "converting" subscribers in some way to another product or service..surely a manageable process given the known predilections of those individuals (thoughtful, probably high-income, influencers); why would they not be happy to be converted to a premium insight service, run as an online-only offering?
,
The other number Carr zeros in on is the reduction in the rate base from 2.5M to 1.6M. But no Web-based offering ever cuts back its rate base...managed correctly, anyway, a premium insight service will only ever grow its number of members...until it reaches a certain size anyway - which for commentary and analysis of this sort is surely greater than any member of the Graham family is able to comprehend.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Will EngineYard Be VMware's Next Cloud Acquisition?

Investigative writer Stacey Higginbotham, who is never happier than when immersed in SEC filings, tech specs or poking through a data center, and who has spent the last ten years covering technology and finance for publications such as The Deal, the Austin Business Journal, The Bond Buyer and Business Week, speculated yesterday afternoon on the GigaOm site that VMware might be contemplating its next Cloud acquisition - to go with Zimbra and SpringSource.

In its sights, says Higginbotham, is EngineYard. Is VMware going to add Ruby on Rails to its Java mix? Only time will tell...